Prediction markets explained

Prediction markets turn beliefs into prices. Understanding how that works is the foundation for using Polymarket, Kalshi, and tools like Polifly.

Prices as probabilities

A share at $0.35 often implies roughly 35% chance—before fees and liquidity frictions.

Your edge is having a better probability estimate than the market after costs.

Where AI helps

Polifly compresses research time and structures your notes so you can compare implied odds to your model.

Related guides

Try Polifly

Ready to analyze Polymarket and Kalshi markets with AI? Open the Polifly dashboard →

Educational software only. Not financial advice. Markets involve risk of loss.

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